National Energy System Operator (NESO) produced Clean Power 2030 (CP30), a must-read document about UK targets for 2030, claiming that Clean Power is possible by 2030, but with “huge challenge.” (Molly Green: https://www.current-news.co.uk/neso-route-to-clean-power-2030-report-government/)
The National Energy System Operator (NESO) is the nationalised energy system operator for the United Kingdom. Previously owned by National Grid plc, when it was known as National Grid ESO, it is a public corporation, part of DESNZ, which operates both the electricity and gas distribution systems from 1 October 2024. The buyout from National Grid was announced in September 2024, and was valued at £630m. Essentially, this public company will now put The Grid in its place and force it to accept Solar and Wind. which it has resisted for half a century.
The words ‘clean power’ relate to days when at least as much power is generated from clean sources as Great Britain consumes across the year, and when natural gas generation makes up less than 5% of Great Britain’s generation in a typical weather year. In other words 95% green.
The report is pushing key changes that the Grid has neglected. In particular 2 pathways are defined with 2 sensitivities allowing more green electricity acceptance, based on new equipment.
The use of pathways reflects the shift that began with National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) report published earlier this year, which predicted the NESO buyout.
National Grid chief executive John Pettigrew said the report was an “immensely helpful milestone” towards 2030. ie The Grid failed and needs change. Fast action is required across industry, regulators, government and NESO. Simultaneous advances are vital.
Fintan Slye (NESO CEO) said: “There’s no doubt that the challenges ahead on the journey to delivering clean power are great. However, if the scale of those challenges is matched with the bold, sustained actions that are outlined in this report, the benefits delivered could be even greater.”
Flexibility and digitisation are the 2 pathways.
based on the rapid customer changing demands. Each of NESO’s pathways assume a high level of societal change and digitisation. System and bidirectional flexibility will replace fossil fuel flexibility and the report establishes a broad hierarchy of flexibility options: demand side, short duration storage from batteries or vehicle-to-grid (V2G), interconnector import and finally unabated gas.
Demand flexibility will need to reach 10-12GW through smart charging of electric vehicles (EVs) and time-shifting household demand.
That flexibility must be supported by a transformation in data and digital infrastructure. Smart tech, EVs and electrified heating provide new ways for consumers to engage with the energy system and cut their costs by flexing their demand. Digitisation eases this process and thus makes it more willingly taken up by the public.
Analysis sees battery capacity increase from 5GW in 2023 to 23-27GW in 2030. Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is also key and grows from 3GW in 2023 to 5 – 8GW in the pathways. Hopefully this is HYDROGEN based, though NESO has not yet come to terms with this new storage technology in caverns. A more responsive industrial demand could provide a further 4GW from storage heating.
Increasing generation installations
The pathways “push the limits of what is feasibly deliverable” but allow flexibility at their margins: onshore wind and solar could substitute for offshore wind; more demand-side response could substitute for batteries; more HYDROGEN or carbon capture and storage (CCS) could substitute for most other supply options.
New installed generation and storage capacity 210-220GW is needed, with many more new demand connections to the Grid, with 2-way transmission and distribution.
The pathways are:1. doubling of onshore wind capacity from 13GW in 2023 to 27GW by 2030 and 2. trebling of solar from 15GW to 47GW by 2030. Fast installation of solar and onshore wind will accept smaller community-scale projects, despised by the GRID over 100 years.
Offshore wind must expand more quickly, by building in 5 years an additional 28-35GW, up from today’s 15GW.
To support this, more network infrastructure will have to be built at four times the speed it has been in the last decade with a focus on speeding up delivery to reduce system costs. The report finds that current plans for network expansion are sufficient but must overcome many barriers to deliver on time and some vital projects need to be accelerated to deliver by 2030.
Grid upgrades need connection reform
The GRID has a huge connection queue which must be cut. Miliband said: “The government is determined to ensure the significant reforms to planning and grid we need so we can back the builders and support investors to make this once in a generation upgrade of Britain’s energy infrastructure happen.” We need organised connecting, not ‘first-come, first-served’ cronyism. The problem that has not been solved yet is the proposed GRID expansion by a factor 2 to 5 which will cost around £1 trillion. This is crazy and should be solved by HYDROGEN.
Investment is crucial. And BIG. NESO can make some hardware and software improvements, but Local Networks can beat 600 mile long cables on all counts.
Cost/Benefits of Clean Power 2030
The report states that to deliver clean power by 2030, Great Britain will need to mobilise and deploy an average of over £40 billion of investment annually in energy infrastructure over the next five years.
Still, NESO states that overall system costs should not increase in a clean power system and that other factors could lower energy bills in 2030: a reduction in legacy policy costs (as contracts expire) and energy efficiency improvements.
Indeed, clean power can support wider economic objectives. The £40 billion annual investment can support economic opportunities and new jobs across the UK. CP30 puts the government’s approach as a crucial determinant of the overall costs. Government policy decisions could also reduce bills by 2030.
While at the Government level, the shift to clean power will be seen as an increase in investment, for consumers it will be felt through its effect on electricity prices and bills.
Octopus, Greg Jackson, said: “The best path will revolve around customers, not just infrastructure.”
Getting rid of the Grid monopoly is a massive step forward. But consumer bills. now horrendous, must come down by shifting the benefits to citizens rather than bloated Grid FatCats and their millions of shareholders overseas.
NESO’s Slye concluded: “A clean power system for Great Britian will deliver a backbone of home-grown energy that breaks the link between volatile international gas prices; that is secure and affordably powers our homes and buildings; that decarbonises the transport that we take to school and work; that drives the businesses of today and catalyses the innovations of the future.”